Track Record
Every verdict is automatically graded at the 24-hour horizon against the realised BTC price. All statistics below are based on live verdicts only.
Running the P-Score model (v1), adopted 2026-06-12. Directional accuracy (Buy / Sell) is the headline skill measure; Wait quality is graded on a separate volatility-scaled band.
For scale: 50% directional accuracy is what a coin flip would score. So far the live verdicts run close to that, so treat them as a read of current conditions, not a proven predictive edge.
Live Track Record
Based on 9024 verdicts graded at the 24h horizon (live source, rolling 90-day window).
Accuracy by Verdict State
Per-state accuracy at the 24h horizon (last 90 days, live verdicts).
Conditional Track Record
| Condition | Win Rate | Avg Return | Profit Factor | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy · Risk < 30 | insufficient history (n=0) | |||
| Sell · Risk < 30 | 11.7% | −0.63% | 0.11 | 145 |
| Buy or Sell · Risk < 30 | 11.7% | −0.63% | 0.11 | 145 |
| Buy · Confidence ≥ 70 | insufficient history (n=0) | |||
| Strong Buy (all) | insufficient history (n=0) | |||
| Strong Sell (all) | 7% | −0.69% | 0.05 | 115 |
Conditional performance over 1000 live verdicts graded at the 24h horizon (rolling 90-day window). Advisory only — these cohorts do not change any verdict.
Recent Graded Verdicts
Verdicts are graded 24h after they're issued, so the newest row here is about a day old. Times shown in your local timezone.
| Date | Verdict | BTC Price | 24h Move | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026, 16:00 | Wait | $63,498 | -0.11% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 15:50 | Wait | $63,494 | -0.10% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 15:35 | Wait | $63,665 | -0.39% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 15:25 | Wait | $63,765 | -0.55% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 15:15 | Wait | $63,712 | -0.46% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 15:05 | Wait | $63,781 | -0.59% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 15:00 | Wait | $63,716 | -0.53% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 14:40 | Wait | $63,884 | -0.58% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 14:20 | Wait | $64,073 | -0.61% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 14:15 | Wait | $64,160 | -0.71% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 14:10 | Wait | $64,130 | -0.64% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 14:00 | Wait | $64,100 | -0.83% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 13:50 | Wait | $64,115 | -0.48% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 13:30 | Wait | $64,175 | -0.40% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 13:25 | Wait | $64,131 | -0.41% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 13:20 | Wait | $64,200 | -0.52% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 13:10 | Wait | $64,308 | -0.55% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 12:50 | Wait | $64,269 | -0.29% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 | Wait | $64,261 | -0.08% | ✓ Correct |
| Aug 11, 2026, 12:25 | Wait | $64,251 | -0.08% | ✓ Correct |
How It Works
A Buy or Strong Buy verdict is graded correct when the BTC price is higher after 24 hours. A Sell or Strong Sell is correct when price is lower. A Wait verdict is correct only when the 24h price move stays within ±1.0 × ATR% (the 14-day Average True Range as a percentage of price) and the maximum intra-period excursion is under 1.5 × that band. Scaling the band to volatility keeps Wait an honest measure across calm and violent markets.
Grading uses a 15-minute lateness allowance — verdicts graded more than 15 minutes after their horizon are recorded as ungradeable rather than scored against a stale window.
Past accuracy is not indicative of future results. BTC Verdict is an educational tool, not financial advice. See Terms.