Track Record
Every verdict is automatically graded at the 24-hour horizon against the realised BTC price. All statistics below are based on live verdicts only.
Running the P-Score model (v1), adopted 2026-06-12. Directional accuracy (Buy / Sell) is the headline skill measure; Wait quality is graded on a separate volatility-scaled band.
Live Track Record
Based on 8962 verdicts graded at the 24h horizon (live source, rolling 90-day window).
Accuracy by Verdict State
Per-state accuracy at the 24h horizon (last 90 days, live verdicts).
Edge Tracker
| Condition | Win Rate | Avg Return | Profit Factor | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy · Risk < 30 | insufficient history (n=0) | |||
| Sell · Risk < 30 | 76.9% | +1.54% | 7.97 | 78 |
| Buy or Sell · Risk < 30 | 76.9% | +1.54% | 7.97 | 78 |
| Buy · Confidence ≥ 70 | insufficient history (n=0) | |||
| Strong Buy (all) | insufficient history (n=0) | |||
| Strong Sell (all) | 83% | +2.00% | 17.23 | 47 |
Conditional performance over 1000 live verdicts graded at the 24h horizon (rolling 90-day window). Advisory only — these cohorts do not change any verdict.
Recent Graded Verdicts
Verdicts are graded 24h after they're issued, so the newest row here is about a day old. Times shown in your local timezone.
| Date | Verdict | BTC Price | 24h Move | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026, 23:30 | Sell | $59,891 | -0.63% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 23:25 | Strong Sell | $59,908 | -1.05% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 23:15 | Sell | $59,976 | -1.31% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 23:00 | Strong Sell | $60,128 | -1.98% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 22:45 | Strong Sell | $60,075 | -1.66% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 22:40 | Wait | $60,134 | -1.60% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 22:30 | Strong Sell | $60,031 | -1.57% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 22:20 | Strong Sell | $59,918 | -1.16% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 22:00 | Strong Sell | $60,022 | -0.89% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 21:40 | Strong Sell | $60,187 | -0.99% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 21:25 | Wait | $60,310 | -1.19% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 21:20 | Strong Sell | $60,289 | -1.16% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 21:00 | Strong Sell | $60,224 | -1.11% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 20:40 | Strong Sell | $60,181 | -0.98% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 20:20 | Strong Sell | $60,172 | -0.92% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 20:00 | Strong Sell | $60,101 | -1.14% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 19:50 | Strong Sell | $60,113 | -1.26% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 19:30 | Strong Sell | $60,055 | -1.01% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 19:25 | Strong Sell | $60,188 | -1.27% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 27, 2026, 19:20 | Wait | $60,373 | -1.58% | ✓ Correct |
How It Works
A Buy or Strong Buy verdict is graded correct when the BTC price is higher after 24 hours. A Sell or Strong Sell is correct when price is lower. A Wait verdict is correct only when the 24h price move stays within ±1.0 × ATR% (the 14-day Average True Range as a percentage of price) and the maximum intra-period excursion is under 1.5 × that band. Scaling the band to volatility keeps Wait an honest measure across calm and violent markets.
Grading uses a 15-minute lateness allowance — verdicts graded more than 15 minutes after their horizon are recorded as ungradeable rather than scored against a stale window.
Past accuracy is not indicative of future results. BTC Verdict is an educational tool, not financial advice. See Terms.