Track Record
Every verdict is automatically graded at the 24-hour horizon against the realised BTC price. All statistics below are based on live verdicts only — backtest data is labelled separately.
Running the P-Score model (v1), adopted 2026-06-12. Directional accuracy (Buy / Sell) is the headline skill measure; Wait quality is graded on a separate volatility-scaled band.
Live Track Record
Based on 689 verdicts graded at the 24h horizon (live source, rolling 90-day window).
Accuracy by Verdict State
Per-state accuracy at the 24h horizon (last 90 days, live verdicts).
Edge Tracker
| Condition | Win Rate | Avg Return | Profit Factor | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy · Risk < 30 | insufficient history (n=0) | |||
| Sell · Risk < 30 | 28.3% | −1.18% | 0.17 | 237 |
| Buy or Sell · Risk < 30 | 28.3% | −1.18% | 0.17 | 237 |
| Buy · Confidence ≥ 70 | insufficient history (n=0) | |||
| Strong Buy (all) | insufficient history (n=0) | |||
| Strong Sell (all) | 24.1% | −1.36% | 0.17 | 141 |
Conditional performance over 689 live verdicts graded at the 24h horizon (rolling 90-day window). Advisory only — these cohorts do not change any verdict.
Recent Graded Verdicts
Verdicts are graded 24h after they're issued, so the newest row here is about a day old. Times shown in your local timezone.
| Date | Verdict | BTC Price | 24h Move | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 2026, 09:15 | Strong Sell | $66,679 | -2.57% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 09:10 | Wait | $66,728 | -2.77% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 08:50 | Wait | $66,708 | -2.76% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 08:40 | Strong Sell | $66,509 | -2.48% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 08:20 | Strong Sell | $66,389 | -1.67% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 08:05 | Strong Sell | $66,338 | -1.48% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 08:00 | Wait | $66,313 | -1.37% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 07:45 | Wait | $66,285 | -1.39% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 07:35 | Strong Sell | $66,330 | -1.38% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 07:30 | Wait | $66,284 | -1.21% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 07:20 | Strong Sell | $66,407 | -1.39% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 07:15 | Wait | $66,298 | -1.01% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 07:00 | Strong Sell | $66,386 | -1.32% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 06:40 | Strong Sell | $66,418 | -1.28% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 06:30 | Wait | $66,306 | -1.04% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 06:10 | Wait | $66,107 | -0.49% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 05:50 | Sell | $66,065 | -0.51% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 05:30 | Sell | $66,064 | -0.40% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 05:10 | Sell | $65,923 | -0.29% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 16, 2026, 04:50 | Sell | $65,859 | +0.04% | ✗ Incorrect |
Historical Backtest
Backtest accuracy (294,641 verdicts, 2018–Jun 2026) — derived from historical bar replay, not live grading.
How It Works
A Buy or Strong Buy verdict is graded correct when the BTC price is higher after 24 hours. A Sell or Strong Sell is correct when price is lower. A Wait verdict is correct only when the 24h price move stays within ±1.0 × ATR% (the 14-day Average True Range as a percentage of price) and the maximum intra-period excursion is under 1.5 × that band. Scaling the band to volatility keeps Wait an honest measure across calm and violent markets.
Grading uses a 15-minute lateness allowance — verdicts graded more than 15 minutes after their horizon are recorded as ungradeable rather than scored against a stale window.
Past accuracy is not indicative of future results. BTC Verdict is an educational tool, not financial advice. See Terms.