Track Record
Every verdict is automatically graded at the 24-hour horizon against the realised BTC price. All statistics below are based on live verdicts only — backtest data is labelled separately.
Running the P-Score model (v1), adopted 2026-06-12. Directional accuracy (Buy / Sell) is the headline skill measure; Wait quality is graded on a separate volatility-scaled band.
Live Track Record
Based on 1000 verdicts graded at the 24h horizon (live source, rolling 90-day window).
Accuracy by Verdict State
Per-state accuracy at the 24h horizon (last 90 days, live verdicts).
Edge Tracker
| Condition | Win Rate | Avg Return | Profit Factor | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buy · Risk < 30 | insufficient history (n=0) | |||
| Sell · Risk < 30 | 43% | −0.50% | 0.56 | 305 |
| Buy or Sell · Risk < 30 | 43% | −0.50% | 0.56 | 305 |
| Buy · Confidence ≥ 70 | insufficient history (n=0) | |||
| Strong Buy (all) | insufficient history (n=0) | |||
| Strong Sell (all) | 40.4% | −0.56% | 0.56 | 183 |
Conditional performance over 1000 live verdicts graded at the 24h horizon (rolling 90-day window). Advisory only — these cohorts do not change any verdict.
Recent Graded Verdicts
Verdicts are graded 24h after they're issued, so the newest row here is about a day old. Times shown in your local timezone.
| Date | Verdict | BTC Price | 24h Move | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 19, 2026, 17:05 | Wait | $62,860 | +1.61% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 17:00 | Wait | $62,928 | +1.61% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 16:40 | Wait | $63,240 | +1.13% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 16:20 | Wait | $63,213 | +1.19% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 16:00 | Wait | $63,162 | +1.29% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 15:40 | Wait | $63,046 | +1.56% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 15:20 | Wait | $63,017 | +1.95% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 15:00 | Wait | $63,131 | +1.15% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 14:40 | Wait | $63,269 | +0.13% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 14:20 | Wait | $63,000 | +0.38% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 14:00 | Wait | $63,115 | +0.23% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 13:40 | Wait | $62,905 | +0.79% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 13:30 | Wait | $62,741 | +0.90% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 13:10 | Wait | $62,778 | +1.23% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 13:05 | Wait | $62,856 | +1.13% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 12:50 | Wait | $62,370 | +1.87% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 12:30 | Wait | $62,509 | +1.77% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 12:20 | Wait | $62,463 | +1.95% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 12:00 | Wait | $62,600 | +1.62% | ✓ Correct |
| Jun 19, 2026, 11:40 | Wait | $62,568 | +1.71% | ✓ Correct |
Historical Backtest
Backtest accuracy (294,641 verdicts, 2018–Jun 2026) — derived from historical bar replay, not live grading.
How It Works
A Buy or Strong Buy verdict is graded correct when the BTC price is higher after 24 hours. A Sell or Strong Sell is correct when price is lower. A Wait verdict is correct only when the 24h price move stays within ±1.0 × ATR% (the 14-day Average True Range as a percentage of price) and the maximum intra-period excursion is under 1.5 × that band. Scaling the band to volatility keeps Wait an honest measure across calm and violent markets.
Grading uses a 15-minute lateness allowance — verdicts graded more than 15 minutes after their horizon are recorded as ungradeable rather than scored against a stale window.
Past accuracy is not indicative of future results. BTC Verdict is an educational tool, not financial advice. See Terms.