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BTC Verdict
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BTC Verdict — current Bitcoin Buy / Sell / Wait signal: Wait

BTC $— $1.29T 56%49% below all-time high
Action Score43/100

Action Score

The headline number (0–100): the corpus-calibrated probability that the next 24h move is up, × 100.

Action Score = P(up) × 100 · P(up) = σ(β₀ + Σ βᵢ·engineᵢ)

  • A logistic model weights the 8 engine signals using 8 years of graded history.
  • Verdict: ≥ 62 Buy · ≥ 65 Strong Buy (Risk ≤ 50) · ≤ 38 Sell · ≤ 35 Strong Sell · in between Wait.
≥ 62 Buy38–62 Wait≤ 38 Sell

Current State

Wait — Awaiting Confirmation

Leaning Bearish
Leaning Bearish
(context)Neutral
(context)Negative
1 of 4 pillar not aligned

A directional move is forming, but not enough signals have aligned yet. Waiting for stronger confirmation reduces risk.

Expected 24h: $61,466$66,835

To Upgrade to Buy

  • Action Score rises above 62 → Buy, or falls below 38 → Sell (currently 43)
  • More timeframes align in the same direction

To Downgrade to Sell

  • Action Score falls below 38 → Sell
  • Macro context worsens (Negative alignment)
  • Institutional flow shifts to Negative
  • Price breaks and holds below $61,466
Legend:Signal (0–100 confidence)Buy verdictSell verdictWait verdictCandles:Bullish closeBearish closeExpected 24h range (±1.5×ATR14d)

Market Events

Market Events· 9+ this week
in 5dFOMC rate decision
in 6dMonthly options expiry
in 19dUS CPI (Jul)
Engine Events
Action Score → Wait band (43)
Action Score → Sell band (38)
Action Score → Wait band (44)
Action Score → Sell band (38)
Sell → Wait
Action Score → Wait band (48)

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