Methodology

The pipeline runs in four stages: raw data collection, per-engine scoring, aggregation into an Action Score, and final Verdict State classification.

Verdict State thresholds: a score ≥ 80 with risk ≤ 50 produces a Strong Buy or Strong Sell; ≥ 60 produces a plain Buy or Sell; anything below 60, or when risk is extreme (≥ 76), resolves to Wait. The sign of the verdict follows the engine consensus direction.

Each engine independently scores a slice of market structure. Weights are fixed and version-controlled; changing any weight increments the model version.

Market Regime weight 15

Identifies the current trend phase using fast (20-period) and slow (50-period) EMAs with ATR expansion/compression overlays. Determines whether price is trending, ranging, or transitioning. Accounts for 15 out of 100 maximum points.

MTF Structure weight 25

Multi-timeframe confluence engine. Weights the weekly (40%), daily (30%), 4-hour (20%), and 1-hour (10%) trend alignments into a single structure score. The highest-weight engine in the system — structural alignment matters most.

BTMM Liquidity weight 20

Bank Trading Model Methodology liquidity analysis. Identifies engineered liquidity pools, stop hunts, and institutional entry zones across timeframes to gauge where smart money is likely positioned.

Quarter Theory weight 10

Divides price ranges into quarterly levels (00, 25, 50, 75 psychological price points) and scores proximity to premium/discount zones. Useful for timing entries relative to institutional reference levels.

PVSRA weight 10

Price, Volume, Support, Resistance Analysis. Flags elevated relative volume (≥ 1.5× the 20-period average) at key structural levels as a proxy for institutional participation. High volume at support = accumulation signal; at resistance = distribution.

VWAP weight 5

Volume-Weighted Average Price anchored to the current session. Price above VWAP with expanding volume is bullish; below VWAP with increasing sell-side pressure is bearish. A lightweight but reliable institutional reference line.

Volume Profile weight 5

Builds a 100-candle volume profile in $500 price buckets and identifies the Point of Control (highest-volume node). Price trading above or below the POC signals directional bias relative to where the most trading activity occurred.

Derivatives weight 10

Synthesises perpetual funding rates, open interest, and long/short ratios from OKX and Bybit. Extreme positive funding (≥ 0.1%) flags overleveraged longs; extreme negative funding flags overleveraged shorts — both reduce the score. Deribit put/call ratio provides options market sentiment.

Every verdict is graded at three horizons after it is issued: 1 hour, 4 hours, and 24 hours. Grading is automated — a cron job fetches the closing price at each horizon and scores the verdict.

A Buy or Strong Buy verdict is graded correct when price is higher at the horizon than at verdict time. A Sell or Strong Sell is correct when price is lower. A Wait verdict is correct at the 24h horizon only when the absolute price move is ≤ 1.5% — i.e., the market did indeed go nowhere.

Track record statistics accumulate in a rolling 90-day window. Older data is compacted into daily aggregate rows to keep storage within the free tier limits.

All price and market data is fetched from free public APIs — no premium data subscription required.

1. Binance REST API — 1h, 4h, 1d, 1w OHLCV candles for multi-timeframe analysis (primary price source for consensus)
2. Coinbase Advanced Trade API — candles for cross-exchange price validation and consensus weighting
3. Kraken REST API — candles for the third consensus leg
4. OKX API — candles, perpetual funding rate, and open interest in BTC (hot-standby for consensus; derivatives engine input)
5. Bybit API — perpetual funding rate, open interest, long/short ratio, and liquidation data (derivatives + temperature engines)
6. Deribit API — options put/call ratio, max pain level, and top open-interest strikes (derivatives engine)
7. Alternative.me Fear & Greed Index — sentiment gauge used as a secondary input to the regime engine